The uncertain stance of the SEC towards XRP ETFs continues, with investors in the market awaiting a new decision. The SEC, which postponed applications from major asset management companies like Grayscale and Bitwise, has extended the process until at least May. Franklin Templeton, on the other hand, filed a new XRP ETF application, indicating that institutional interest is still ongoing. Analysts suggest that the approval of XRP ETFs could bring billions of dollars into the market, but there is no clear prediction on how the process will unfold.

It took years for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the spot prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum to be approved. However, a significant change is happening at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is leading to a similar process for ETFs focusing on smaller cryptocurrencies like XRP. The SEC announced that it is postponing the decision on whether to allow Grayscale and Bitwise, major asset management companies, to launch exchange-traded funds based on XRP. This delay is considered a significant development for XRP investors, indicating that the process is expected to extend until at least the end of May. As a result, the possibility of ETFs that allow investors to be exposed to the price of XRP without directly owning it being launched in the near future has been eliminated.

This regulatory development, which has the potential to increase institutional interest, has created a significant buzz in the market. Currently, the total net assets of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have reached $99 billion. Opening a similar path for XRP ETFs could boost interest in this altcoin. However, the uncertainty remains about how much longer the process will continue.

What is the Likelihood of XRP ETF Approval?
One of the biggest concerns for XRP investors is whether the SEC will continuously postpone these applications. According to data from the crypto-supported prediction market Polymarket, there is a 35% chance that XRP ETFs will be approved by July 31. However, this probability is expected to rise to 72% by the end of the year.

Despite the changes at the SEC following Trump’s presidency, the process is seen to be moving slowly. Paul Atkins, who was appointed to replace former SEC chairman Gary Gensler, has not received official approval from Congress yet. This makes the approval of XRP ETF applications, along with other alternative crypto ETFs like Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin, unlikely until Atkins takes office.

While the starting times for the SEC chairmen in the past have generally been completed by March, the latest Semaphore report indicates that the White House has not yet completed the necessary paperwork. This suggests that the XRP ETF process could be further prolonged.

New XRP ETF Application from Franklin Templeton
Despite the SEC postponing decisions on current applications, major investment firms continue to show interest in XRP ETFs. Most recently, Franklin Templeton, with assets under management totaling $1.68 trillion, has filed a new ETF application named “The Franklin XRP Trust.”

The application documents indicate that the fund’s assets will largely consist of XRP and aim to track its price performance. Franklin Templeton had previously applied for and received approval for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. However, these funds did not garner as much interest among investors as expected.

Among the 12 Bitcoin ETFs operating in the U.S., BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust holds a market share of 50.85%, followed by Fidelity’s ETF with 17.5%. Franklin Templeton’s Bitcoin ETF only has a market share of 0.46%. A similar situation exists among Ethereum ETFs, with BlackRock leading with a 35% share, while Franklin Templeton’s Ethereum ETF lags behind with a 0.33% market share.

This data raises questions about whether Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF will generate significant demand if launched in the market. According to analysts, institutional demand for altcoins that undergo ETF treatment is often limited. However, allowing XRP to be included in exchange-traded funds may increase interest in this digital asset.

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, if XRP ETFs are approved, the amount of funds entering the market within the first 12 months could reach $8 billion. Additionally, the possibility of XRP being included in ETFs tracking multiple cryptocurrencies is being discussed.

Next Steps for XRP ETFs
The future of the XRP ETF process will be shaped by the new SEC leadership and market dynamics. The most important question for XRP investors is when the SEC will clarify the current uncertainty. With the assumption that the process will accelerate with Paul Atkins taking office, the approval process between the White House and Congress will be a critical factor in determining this timeline.

While a significant development regarding XRP ETFs is not expected in the short term, the participation of major players like Franklin Templeton in the process could increase institutional interest in XRP in the long run. Additionally, it should be kept in mind that assets other than Bitcoin and Ethereum have received limited investor interest in the ETF market.

In the coming months, how the SEC will approach XRP ETFs and the regulatory framework it will establish for them will be one of the most important factors determining the direction of investors in the market.