The price movements and key indicators of Bitcoin are providing signals that question whether the market is in a deep value zone or on the brink of a new bear market. An analysis released by CryptoQuant on March 11 highlighted that Bitcoin has reached one of the lowest levels in the current cycle. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has dropped to levels that in previous cycles signaled either a sharp price correction or the beginning of a long-term downtrend.
Another important metric, the MVRV Ratio Z-score, also fell below its 365-day moving average. This indicates that Bitcoin’s previous upward momentum has weakened, and investor sentiment has deteriorated. On the demand side, a sharp decline is also apparent. Visible demand for Bitcoin has dropped by 103,000 BTC in the last week, marking the most significant demand contraction since July 2024.
The market’s fragility is further deepened by changes in Bitcoin whales and ETF movements. Traditionally, large investors who determine the market’s direction are showing a noticeable slowdown in Bitcoin purchases. Particularly, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have transitioned to a net selling position this year. This situation increases downward pressure on prices.
With the current correction, Bitcoin has lost 22% of its value. Although such corrections have been seen in past bull markets, the current valuation indicators paint a different picture. CryptoQuant analysts suggest that this could be a deep restructuring process indicating market structural weaknesses rather than an ordinary price pullback.
Bitcoin’s decline was triggered not only by technical indicators but also by macroeconomic developments. New announcements from US President Donald Trump regarding trade policies on Tuesday, March 12, reduced investors’ risk appetite, causing sharp market fluctuations. Statements from the Trump administration about imposing new tariffs on major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China increased uncertainty in global markets. This development triggered widespread sales in risky assets, including Bitcoin, leading the overall crypto market to lose 6% of its value in a day.
If the current downward trend continues, Bitcoin is expected to test support at $81,000. However, if this level is breached, there is a possibility of a retreat to the next major support level around $63,000. At 8:45 AM Turkish time, BTC is trading at $81,851 with a 1.3% decline. The $63,000 level has historically been one of the critical thresholds at which Bitcoin price has held during severe corrections. CryptoQuant analysts believe this level will play a key role in determining the market’s long-term trend.