President Trump recently disclosed a comprehensive set of global tariffs, with rates frequently changing. While the exact timing and scale of these tariffs remain uncertain, many specialists predict they could result in an economic decline.

Facing immediate market upheaval, Trump has characterized these measures as a short-term sacrifice for long-term benefit. He has urged the American public to be patient, asserting, “Jobs and factories will return to our nation with vigor, a trend already evident. We will strengthen our domestic industrial foundation.”

Despite a short-term halt on some tariffs, market unrest persists. Congressional Republicans have, to date, been relatively quiet about the economic consequences, banking on the trust of Trump’s supporters, at least in the immediate future.

Our research indicates that Republicans may be correct in anticipating that Trump’s base will endure economic struggles for the promise of future prosperity.

This is not the first time Trump has sought patience and latitude from his supporters regarding trade policies. In 2018, during the initial “Trump trade war,” he imposed tariffs on China, prompting China to retaliate by reducing purchases of agricultural goods. Prices for crops like corn and soybeans immediately plummeted, resulting in a 20% increase in farm bankruptcies in 2019 compared to the previous year. Numerous farmers abandoned the tariffed crops and diversified their investments.

Nevertheless, Trump assured farmers, “We hold the upper hand, victory is assured.” Farmers who voiced support for the president were notably hopeful about the trade war’s potential success.

Our recently published academic paper demonstrated that actions spoke louder than words. Using satellite data provided by the Department of Agriculture, we tracked farmers’ crop planting before and after the trade war began. On average, farmers swiftly reduced their planting of tariff-affected crops like corn and soybeans, indicative of a risk-averse attitude towards their earnings, alongside a prevalent belief that the trade war would deteriorate before improving.

Conversely, farmers in Trump-supporting regions adopted a different approach. They were significantly more inclined to continue as normal, planting tariffed crops as if prices had not shifted. This indicates that Trump-supporting farmers accepted the president’s assurances that the trade war would conclude promptly. These entrepreneurs were willing to support the president in anticipation of future gains, despite the short-term challenges.

Based on the 2018 trade war experience, it is probable that Trump’s base will tolerate some initial discomfort. Recent surveys reveal that Republican voters particularly favor Trump’s focus on imposing tariffs, believing they will benefit the economy in the long term. A significant 78% of Republican voters endorse the tariffs, with over half anticipating they will reduce prices. This positive outlook could offer Trump some momentum for the immediate future.

Nonetheless, it remains uncertain how long Republicans will maintain their patience. Bipartisan groups in Congress have proposed bills to curtail presidential tariff authority, which Republican leadership managed to thwart. If economic forecasts are reliable, this trade war may last longer and be costlier to Americans than the 2018 scenario. Additionally, unlike in 2018, government subsidies may struggle to assist all impacted.

The public’s patience may eventually wear thin. However, the current belief in Trump’s base could provide a foundation for short-term support.