Oil Prices Hit 4-Year Low

Concerns over escalating trade wars caused oil prices to drop sharply. Brent crude oil fell to as low as $63, marking the lowest level in 4 years. Oil prices plummeted on the first trading day of the week following U.S. President Donald Trump’s strong rhetoric on trade tariffs and the announcement by the OPEC+ group of plans to increase production in May. The price per barrel of Brent oil dropped by 3.87% to $63.20, hitting its lowest level in the last four years. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil found buyers at $59.67 per barrel. The decision of the world’s largest oil importer, China, to retaliate against Trump’s new customs tariffs, along with similar announcements by other major economies like the European Union, has brought global trade war concerns back to the forefront. Expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth and concerns about a subsequent decrease in oil demand were prominent reasons behind the losses in oil prices seen over the past week. Trade wars are intensifying. Trump stated that his implemented tariffs should be seen as medicine and that he was not considering stepping back. Trump announced that new tariffs coming into effect on April 9 will see additional taxes of up to 54% on products imported from China. He emphasized that these tariffs aim to close the trade gap between the United States and other major economies and will continue until this goal is met. China responded by announcing a 34% tax on all American products, criticizing Trump’s tariffs and threatening further countermeasures. Experts warn that these steps could lead to economic damages on a global scale and may adversely affect oil demand. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRODUCTION DECISION Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ group, composed of some non-OPEC producer countries, announced they would adhere to their decision of gradually increasing production, adding to concerns about oversupply alongside declining demand, putting additional pressure on prices. The OPEC+ group announced on April 3 that they would gradually end the voluntary 2.2 million barrel production cut as of April 1, with a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels planned for May. It is deemed unlikely that oil prices will return to $80 per barrel soon, as experts point out that decisions made by Trump and the OPEC+ group significantly stifle oil demand. While the OPEC+ group continues to provide excess supply to the market, it is likely that significant demand increase will not be expected due to the economic uncertainties stemming from global trade wars, making it challenging to anticipate a return to $80 per barrel in the near future. Technically, $70.49 is cited as a resistance level and $62.28 as a support level for Brent oil.