Markets Shocked, $2.7 Trillion Evaporated: Heavy Bill for Americans

Global trade war panic continues in the world economy. While the US stock market saw its sharpest decline in 5 years, $2.7 trillion evaporated from the market. The cost of customs duties to Americans was estimated to be $3,500 per household. President Donald Trump’s customs tariff policy has disrupted global markets. The customs duties announced by Trump were recorded as the strictest trade restrictions the US has imposed in over 100 years. In this context, the US activated additional customs duties for 185 countries. Tariff rates ranged from 10% to 50%. Higher taxes were imposed on countries where the US has a high trade deficit. Additional taxes of 20% to the European Union, 34% to China, and 46% to Vietnam were announced. Following the decision, the European Union and China announced that they would respond in kind. Concerns about customs duties have disrupted trade and supply chains. Fears escalated that an extensive trade war could lead to a global economic slowdown. Concerns increased that global trade could be disrupted due to tariffs. Additionally, predictions of inflation increasing due to tariffs were strengthened. Concerns about a recession in the global economy in the US have reflected in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed). The expectation that the Fed will adopt a more aggressive interest rate cut policy to support economic growth strengthened. Fed fund futures point to a 96 basis point cut by December. Before his announcement of customs duties, a 70 basis point interest rate cut was expected. JPMorgan indicated in a research note titled “Blood Will Spill” that Trump’s new customs tariff decision increased the risk of a global economic slowdown by 20 points. The New York Stock Exchange ended the day with a sharp decline due to concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs announced yesterday could drag the economy into a recession. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices saw their largest daily declines since 2020. Yesterday at the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index lost 4.84%, the Nasdaq index dropped 5.97%, and the Dow Jones index fell by 3.98%. On the corporate side, the decline in the shares of companies with global supply chains after the tariff announcements drew attention. Apple’s shares dropped over 9%, Nike’s shares lost over 14%. The shares of retailers mostly selling imported products, such as Five Below, fell by about 28%, and Dollar Tree’s shares dropped by 13%. President Trump commented on the decline in the New York Stock Exchange, saying, “I think everything is going very well. Markets will explode, the stock market will explode.” Trump compared the US economy to a patient that needed surgery, saying, “There were too many problems in the economy.” Trump used the analogy, “The patient was in critical condition. It underwent an operation. It will be a booming economy. It will be fantastic.” Research on how customs duties will affect American citizens has also begun. The think tank Advancing American Freedom, founded by former Vice President Mike Pence, estimated that the latest taxes would cost American families more than $3,500 per year. The analysis mentioned that tariffs-related price increases would eliminate most families’ three years of wage increases. Yale University calculated that the tariffs announced on April 2nd would cost each household an average of $2,100. It was emphasized that all additional taxes announced so far could cost households $3,800.