Markets in Disarray: Eyes on the US-China Duel

Confusion arose in the markets due to Trump’s changes in tariffs. Tensions between the US and China increased demand for safe haven assets. While gold reached record highs, there was a continued rise in the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Stock and cryptocurrency markets, on the other hand, showed a mixed trend. In global markets, President Donald Trump’s frequent changes in customs tariff policies made it difficult for investors to make decisions. Concerns about the escalation of tension between the US and China kept the risk perception at a high level. The tariff duel between the world’s two largest economies deepens uncertainties about where the confrontation will lead. The steps taken by the US administration regarding tariffs and their possible effects on the economy continue to be the biggest source of uncertainty in the markets. CHINA TARIFFS UPDATED ONCE AGAIN The White House announced that the tariff rate imposed on China reached 145 percent when including those due to the fentanyl crisis. President Donald Trump claimed that China had benefited greatly from customs tariffs for a long time and stated, “We will see what happens with China, we would very much like to reach a deal with them.” INFLATION REMAINED IN THE SHADOW The tariff dispute between the two major economies overshadowed the US’s 90-day delay decision and the inflation data coming in lower than expected. Consumer prices in the US came in at 2.4 percent on an annual basis in March, below expectations. Monthly inflation in the country has declined for the first time since May 2020. Despite the slowdown in inflation in the US, analysts noted that the effects of tariffs may be seen later, with predictions leaning toward a possible acceleration in inflation for April. INCREASED DEMAND FOR SAFE HAVENS The pressure tariffs put on global growth and increased concerns about stagnation are leading investors in search of safe havens. Market pricing in the transfer of Federal Reserve’s first rate cut to June strengthens, while the prediction that the Bank will make a total of 4 rate cuts throughout the year is being priced in. In light of these developments, the US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.44 percent, while there was a decrease in the yields of 2-year and 5-year bonds. DOLLAR AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN 2 YEARS Concerns about growth in the US and worries about inflation rising again recently led to a decrease in confidence in the US economy and a decline in the dollar index, strengthening the trend towards the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. The dollar/yen rate fell by 1 percent to 143.1, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The Swiss Franc also reached its highest level against the dollar since 2011. The dollar index tested below 100 for the first time since July 2023, currently standing at 100.1 with a 0.3 percent decrease. The euro/dollar rate exceeded 1.11, reaching its highest level since September 2024. GOLD SETS A RECORD Rising global risks have solidified gold’s safe haven nature, with the ounce price of gold continuing to trade at record levels. After rising to $3,220 within the last 3 business days, the price of gold per ounce leveled off at $3,213. The barrel price of Brent crude oil stands at $62.9 with a 0.6 percent decrease. MIXED TRENDS IN THE STOCK MARKETS Yesterday, the S&P 500 index lost 3.46 percent, the Nasdaq index lost 4.31 percent, and the Dow Jones index lost 2.50 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. Index futures in the US started the new day with a positive trend. Yesterday, the DAX 40 in Germany gained 4.53 percent, the CAC 40 index in France gained 3.83 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK gained 3.04 percent, and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 4.72 percent. Index futures in Europe began the new day with a positive trend. While the Nikkei 225 index fell by 4.3 percent in Japan and the Kospi index fell by 1 percent in South Korea, the Hang Seng index rose by 0.9 percent in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite index rose by 0.3 percent in China. CRYPTOCURRENCIES FLUCTUATED Efforts for a recovery continue in the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin, which rose to $83,000 yesterday, is currently trading around $81,000. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading above $1,500 with a 2 percent increase.