Markets Focus on US Inflation Data

Concerns over trade wars deepened sales in the markets. Investors are now focused on the upcoming US inflation data next week. Global markets ended the week under selling pressure due to the increased risk perception stemming from US President Donald Trump’s announced tariffs and concerns about possible retaliations from other economies. Eyes are now turned to the US inflation figures to be released next week, as well as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. US inflation figures for March will be announced on Wednesday, March 10th. In the country, inflation will decline from 3% in February to 2.8%. US President Donald Trump’s economic and trade policies under the “America First” policy continued to be a source of uncertainty globally. Countermeasures in this direction had an impact on the direction of the markets. Concerns that tariffs will put pressure on global growth and trigger inflation by reflecting increased customs duties on prices have led to increased selling pressure in stock markets due to high risk perception. $6 TRILLION LOSS Harsh sales were seen in the US stock market last week. The Dow Jones index lost over 2,200 points yesterday, dropping by 5.5% to 38,314.86. The S&P 500 index fell by 5.97% to 5,074.08 points, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 5.82% to 15,587.79 points. The weekly decline in the indexes was 7.9% for the Dow Jones, 9.1% for the S&P 500, and 10% for the Nasdaq. The two-day sharp decline in the indexes led to losses of over $6 trillion, and approximately $10 trillion has been wiped out from US markets since Trump took office. WILL THE FED CUT RATES? Growing recession concerns in the global economy have impacted the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate expectations in the US. Expectations that the Fed will adopt a more aggressive rate cut policy to support economic growth have strengthened. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated in his remarks on Friday that “High tariffs will have an impact on our economy and will likely raise inflation in the coming quarters.” He added, “As new policies and their possible economic effects become clearer, we will better understand their impact on the economy and monetary policy.” Trump, just before Powell’s speech, suggested that it is a perfect time to cut interest rates, calling on the Fed Chairman to lower rates. Expectations that the Fed will make a total of 4 rate cuts by the end of the year have strengthened in the pricing on the money markets, with the bank expected to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points with a 75% probability in June.