Expectations of investors in the cryptocurrency market are increasingly being priced through prediction platforms. Blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket shared the most significant possibilities for 2025 with investors. From Bitcoin price predictions to altcoin ETFs, and whether the Trump administration will create a Bitcoin reserve, many topics are being priced according to investors’ expectations.

Uncertainty and speculation always play a significant role in the crypto market, while prediction markets are gaining more and more interest. Crypto-backed betting platform Polymarket allows investors to invest through probabilities by pricing their expectations for future events. The platform, which has made successful predictions on the US elections and various market movements in the past, evaluated the possibilities that are creating a buzz in the cryptocurrency world for 2025. Let’s take a look at the most notable predictions, from Bitcoin prices to altcoin ETFs, and whether the Trump administration will create a BTC reserve.

WHERE WILL BITCOIN REACH IN 2025?

There is significant variability in predictions regarding the Bitcoin price. Investors price the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the end of the year at 46%. However, this number decreases as more ambitious levels are considered:

27% chance of reaching $150,000
12% chance of reaching $250,000
4% chance of reaching $1 million

These probabilities have changed significantly, especially with institutional investors exiting the markets and a decrease in interest in Bitcoin ETFs. On January 20th, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 was priced at 62%. However, this ratio experienced a sharp decline in later periods of the year.

On the other hand, investors see a $75,000 drop in Bitcoin as the most likely scenario. Those trading on Polymarket think there is a 34% chance of this scenario happening.

WILL TRUMP CREATE A BITCOIN RESERVE WITHIN THE FIRST 100 DAYS?

Donald Trump’s frequent expressions of interest in Bitcoin during his election campaign had excited investors. Shortly after his election victory, according to Polymarket data, the likelihood of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve for the US within the first 100 days of the presidency was at 60%.

However, in recent weeks, this likelihood has dropped to 29%. The main reason for this decline is the uncertainty about whether congressional approval is needed, despite the plan being officially announced. Still, by the end of the year, the possibility of the US creating a Bitcoin reserve is priced at 75%.

Seen as a critical move for the cryptocurrency market, the timing and scope of this decision could have a significant impact on the markets.

WILL ALTCOIN ETFs BE APPROVED IN 2025?

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 but continues to be cautious about altcoin ETFs. Investors are highly certain that a series of altcoin ETFs will be approved in 2025.

The rates for altcoin ETFs on Polymarket are as follows:

89% chance of approval for Solana (SOL) ETF
77% chance of approval for XRP ETF
72% chance of approval for Litecoin (LTC) ETF
69% chance of approval for Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) ETFs

These rates reflect the increasing interest of investors in the altcoin market and possible regulatory developments on the regulatory side. The Solana ETF stands out as the product most likely to be approved.

UNLIKELY PREDICTIONS TO OCCUR

There are some unusual crypto predictions on Polymarket that investors find unlikely but interesting. Some of the extraordinary crypto predictions priced on the platform are:

20% chance of Ethereum (ETH) reaching an all-time high in 2025
12% chance of MicroStrategy declaring bankruptcy in 2025
6% chance of Amazon creating a Bitcoin reserve by June
2% chance of Solana (SOL) surpassing Ethereum (ETH) in market value
7% chance of Bybit going bankrupt in 2025

Considering the unpredictable events that have occurred in the crypto world in the past, some events that seem unlikely could unexpectedly happen.

WHAT DO POLYMARKET PREDICTIONS TELL THE MARKET?

Data on Polymarket is considered an essential indicator as it directly reflects investors’ market expectations. Bitcoin ETF launches, decreasing interest from institutional investors, and uncertainties in altcoin ETFs significantly affect price predictions for 2025.

On the other hand, decisions such as the creation of a Bitcoin reserve by the US government, approval of Solana ETF, and the general direction of the market are among the events that investors will largely price in the coming months.

Nothing is definite in the crypto world, but the rates priced on Polymarket continue to be an important source of data to see the general market expectations.