The debate continues on whether the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market has come to an end, with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stating that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin has entered a downward trend.

According to Ju, the increasing interest in Bitcoin ETFs has altered traditional on-chain liquidity signals, signaling the beginning of a new phase in market dynamics.

HOW DO ETFs AFFECT ON-CHAIN DATA? The CryptoQuant CEO emphasized that traditional retail investor activity is not clearly visible in on-chain transactions because many investors participate in the crypto market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than direct transactions. Ju stated that approximately 80% of Bitcoin ETF flows come from retail investors, a trend also observed by Binance analysts towards the end of 2024. The preference of retail investors for Bitcoin ETFs results in the new liquidity entering the market not being fully reflected in on-chain data. This does not necessarily mean a decrease in demand for Bitcoin, but it indicates a cautious approach is needed when assessing market movements using traditional on-chain metrics.

HAS BITCOIN ENTERED A BEAR MARKET? Ki Young Ju recently noted that all on-chain liquidity signals indicating that Bitcoin has entered a bear market. According to him, Bitcoin may experience an extended market correction phase over the next 6 to 12 months. Ju pointed out that fundamental indicators such as market value/realized value (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) are on a downward trend. These metrics support the view that investors are taking profits and the market is undergoing a correction phase.

The Bitcoin price experienced a 0.35% decline in the last 24 hours, falling from $84,500 to $83,000. This decline aligns with the sales of short-term investors who have recently made profits. Particularly, the increased selling pressure from institutional investors and derivative markets negatively affects Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

HOW DO ANALYSTS ASSESS BITCOIN’S FUTURE? Financial analyst Peter Schiff mentioned that Bitcoin has a high correlation with the NASDAQ and a possible downturn in traditional markets could adversely affect Bitcoin’s price. Schiff predicts that if the market continues to decline, Bitcoin could drop to $65,000, a decrease of up to 24%. In a worse scenario, he claims that in the event of a deepening market correction, Bitcoin could fall to $20,000. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone expressed that Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are overheated, while gold prices are rising. McGlone forecasts that if economic conditions worsen, Bitcoin could drop to $10,000. However, some market experts argue that as Bitcoin ETF purchases increase, the market could gain liquidity and prices could stabilize.

MINERS AND LIQUIDITY ISSUE Another significant indicator of the end of the Bitcoin bull cycle is miner activities. Recent data shows that Bitcoin miners selling a total of $27 million worth of BTC have caused a significant amount of cash outflow in the market. This indicates that miners are selling to cover their costs, creating additional selling pressure on the market. Additionally, the Bitcoin halving set to occur in 2026 could create a new wave of volatility in the market. While past halving events have generally had a positive impact on the price due to a decrease in supply, they have also caused short-term volatility. Some see this as a long-term investment opportunity, but some analysts believe that increasing mining costs will continue to exert pressure on the market.

WHAT WILL BE BITCOIN’S NEXT MOVE? If current market trends persist, it appears challenging for Bitcoin to reach new highs in the coming months. As the crypto market increasingly shifts towards ETFs, traditional on-chain indicators may not fully reflect the market dynamics. Leading analysts highlight that global macroeconomic conditions will play a critical role in determining Bitcoin’s future. If demand for ETFs continues, Bitcoin’s long-term potential could be preserved. However, in a period where on-chain indicators do not fully reflect investor interest, investors need to be prepared for a possible long-term market correction.