Global trade locked in Trump’s tariffs

The announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump is expected on April 2. The confusion about the scope of tariffs is increasing uncertainty in global trade. Next week marks the deadline for federal agencies set by President Donald Trump the day he took office in the White House to review unfair trade practices. Trump, who frequently emphasizes that his favorite word in the dictionary is “tariff,” is planning to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2. He defines April 2, which he sees as a significant day for trade policy, as Liberation Day. It remains uncertain which countries and products Trump will impose tariffs on, as he claims that all countries are being taken advantage of by both friends and foes. It is indicated that the coverage of reciprocal tariffs may be narrower than expected. News coverage and recent statements by Trump support these expectations. According to these reports, the White House is expected to exempt tariffs on certain industrial sectors from tariffs announced on April 2, while reciprocal tariffs are expected to be imposed on countries with significant external trade volume with the US. The Trump administration is reported to be focusing on countries with large trade imbalances with the US. Trump had previously announced that tariffs would also be imposed on sectors such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, making it unlikely that he will announce specific tariffs for these sectors on April 2 anymore, although plans are still subject to change. By choosing not to specify a date, Trump further increases uncertainty by stating that he will announce tariffs on cars and pharmaceuticals in the near future. Some reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering a two-phase strategy for the new tariff regime, which includes activating emergency tariffs by rarely used powers as trade investigations against trading partners are completed. It is indicated that Trump’s team is considering creating a more robust legal framework for the tariff regime while also generating resources for tax cuts. Trump suggested flexibility in his announcement on March 21 regarding reciprocal tariffs, stating that they could be flexible and that they would impose tariffs corresponding to the tariffs the US receives, claiming that reciprocal tariffs would be fair. In his announcement on March 24, Trump also suggested that many countries could be exempted from reciprocal tariffs. Trump had used the following statements: “We can receive less than what they receive from us because they have taken so much tax from us that I don’t think they can bear it. In other words, they have taken so much tax from us that I am embarrassed to tax them back, but it will be a significant amount, and you will hear this on April 2.” The fate of the tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico by the US due to fentanyl and irregular immigrant flows in addition to reciprocal tariffs remains uncertain. Trump, who went through a change in the presidential decree on March 4 regarding the imposition of a 25% customs duty on goods imported from Mexico and Canada, signed regulations foreseeing exemptions for goods compatible with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) from tariffs for these countries until April 2. With these regulations, cars meeting USMCA requirements were among the products exempt from tariffs, while the customs tax rate applied to Canadian origin potash (fertilizer used by farmers) was reduced to 10%. Despite the expiration of these exemptions, there has been no announcement from the administration as to how tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be approached. While uncertainties remain about their coverage, the new tariffs the US plans to implement are expected to escalate tension in global trade.