The global oil supply increased by approximately 240 thousand barrels per day in February, reaching 103 million 250 thousand barrels.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the global oil supply rose by around 240 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous month, reaching 103 million 250 thousand barrels in February. According to the IEA’s oil market report for February, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased its crude oil supply by approximately 40 thousand barrels per day last month, reaching 27 million 460 thousand barrels. During this period, OPEC’s production from sources other than crude oil also rose to 5 million 570 thousand barrels per day. As a result, OPEC’s total oil supply reached 33 million 30 thousand barrels per day last month. This exceeded the previous month’s level by about 50 thousand barrels per day. Oil production by non-OPEC countries increased by approximately 190 thousand barrels per day during the same period, reaching 70 million 220 thousand barrels per day. As a result, the global oil supply increased by approximately 240 thousand barrels per day in February compared to the previous month, reaching 103 million 250 thousand barrels.

PRODUCTION INCREASE CAME FROM THE OPEC+ GROUP
According to the report, the majority of the global oil supply increase came from the OPEC+ group, consisting of countries from OPEC and some non-OPEC producers. Kazakhstan produced record levels of oil due to increased production in the Tengiz field, while Iran and Venezuela increased their production flow ahead of tighter sanctions. During this period, the OPEC+ group’s crude oil production reached 41 million 780 thousand barrels per day, the highest level in the last 6 months with an increase of 210 thousand barrels per day. When adding the group’s daily production of 8 million 270 thousand barrels from other sources of non-conventional crude oil, the total oil supply increased to approximately 50 million 50 thousand barrels per day. Meanwhile, the production from non-OPEC+ sources showed a partial increase last month, reaching 53 million 200 thousand barrels per day with an increase of 20 thousand barrels per day.

REVISION TO OIL FORECAST
It is expected that global oil demand will reach 103 million 910 thousand barrels per day this year, with an increase of approximately 1 million 30 thousand barrels per day. In its report last month, the IEA had forecast an increase of 1 million 100 thousand barrels per day in global oil demand. Pointing out that the latest delivery data fell below expectations in the unusually uncertain macroeconomic outlook, the IEA reduced its annual demand growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025 to 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day due to weakness in emerging markets. According to the report, while around 60% of the expected increase in global demand this year will come from Asia, it is estimated that China, led by petrochemical raw materials, will contribute most to growth. Demand is anticipated to increase by approximately 1 million 84 thousand barrels per day in non-OECD countries, reaching around 58 million 290 thousand barrels per day, while it is calculated that it will decrease by 53 thousand barrels per day in OECD countries, reaching approximately 45 million 620 thousand barrels per day.