Flawed Trade and Tariff Views of Trump

President Trump has been accurate on certain issues, however, when it comes to tariffs, he misses the mark on almost everything. His errors are not small; they are remarkably incorrect. Adding to the perplexity is the presence of competent economists around him, who understand his fallacy and have likely tried to clarify it to him—unfortunately, without success.
If he were to heed to their advice, here is what they would inform him about.
Trade deficits are not a cause for concern. Contrary to Trump’s belief, the U.S. trade deficit is not a pressing issue for most economists. The U.S. has consistently purchased more goods from other nations throughout the years, resulting in a yearly trade deficit. Whenever there is a reduction in consumption due to an economic downturn, the trade deficit tends to decrease.
Despite Trump’s claim that other nations, like China, are “winning” while the U.S. is “losing,” this analogy does not hold. To comprehend this, one can consider a household. Your household may have numerous trade deficits with various establishments, like grocery stores and restaurants. However, this does not imply that you are at a loss, but rather that you produce sufficient income to cover those expenses.
Similarly, countries operate on the same principle. The U.S. is one of the wealthiest nations globally and continues to witness an increase in gross domestic product annually. This affluence enables companies and individuals in the U.S. to spend on desired goods and services, akin to a household.
Contrary to Trump’s assertion, U.S. consumers bear the brunt of tariffs. It remains puzzling why Trump persists in stating that other countries pay tariffs imposed by the U.S. The reality is that tariffs are import taxes levied by the U.S., which are ultimately paid by American consumers and businesses upon the arrival of the goods.
The effects of these tariffs are akin to a tax increase on U.S. businesses, resulting in higher prices for consumers. Consequently, Trump’s tariff policies have the potential to escalate inflation rates, leading to reluctance by the Federal Reserve Bank to lower interest rates.
Trump’s notion that tariffs could substitute other taxes is flawed. While tariffs were a principal government revenue source in the 1800s, they currently constitute a negligible portion of federal revenue. Even with substantial spending cuts and higher tariff revenue, they would only contribute minimally to the overall federal revenue needed.
Trump’s imposition of tariffs has elicited discontent from numerous U.S. businesses and investors, impacted by retaliatory measures from countries like Canada, Mexico, and China. The most sensible approach for Trump would be to compromise with the targeted nations and end the trade war. Perhaps he will take this step, as he would certainly not want to be attributed to diminishing America’s prosperity.
Merrill Matthews, the co-author of “On the Edge: America Faces the Entitlements Cliff,” is a public policy and political expert who articulately analyzed these trade and tariff issues.