In global markets, last week’s negative trend predominated with the impact of the tariffs on automobiles announced by US President Donald Trump, with focus shifting to the employment data to be disclosed in the US and reciprocal tariffs in the upcoming week.

While the upcoming employment data is expected to provide more information about the uncertain US economy overshadowed by uncertainties, the implications of the tariff steps taken by Trump and those to be taken on the global trade system are closely monitored. Trump signed an executive order last week imposing a 25% tariff on imported automobiles and trucks aimed at increasing domestic production. Speaking at the signing ceremony at the White House, Trump described this as the “beginning of America’s Independence Day.” Trump reiterated that the real Independence Day for the US would be on April 2nd when reciprocal tariffs would be announced and mentioned that the automobile tariffs would come into effect on that date. Trump used the expression, “Starting from April 3, we are collecting.” Furthermore, he reported that tariffs will also be imposed on drugs to bring the pharmaceutical industry back to the country. Along with the reciprocal tariffs to be announced next week, possible retaliatory statements from the US’s trading partners are expected to have an impact on global risk perception. While many countries reacted to the US president’s tariff decision on the automobile industry last week, it was reported that the European Union (EU) was making preparations regarding measures to be taken against the new tariffs on imported automobiles by the US. Concerns about tariffs increase uncertainties regarding the steps the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take in the upcoming period. Last week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that due to economic uncertainty, the next interest rate cut might be delayed. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on the US economy, stating that the possibility of raising prices required higher interest rates, while slowing economic growth required reducing borrowing costs. Kashkari noted that until the situation becomes clearer, the Fed may need to remain where it is for an extended period in its monetary policy. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem emphasized that it was not clear how temporary the impact of tariffs would be and indirect effects might require interest rates to be kept stable for a longer period. When Boston Fed President Susan Collins made statements on the subject, she mentioned that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration would accelerate inflation in the US, but uncertainty remained about how long-lasting this effect would be. Regarding macroeconomic data, the growth rate of the US economy for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised upward. Accordingly, the US economy outperformed expectations with a 2.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed considers as its inflation gauge and excludes food and energy items from calculations, increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis in February. The monthly increase rate in the index reached its highest level since January 2024. The core personal consumption expenditures price index was predicted to increase by 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.7% on an annual basis in January, in line with market expectations. The consumer confidence index measured by the University of Michigan was revised downward to 57 in March, marking its lowest level since November 2022. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations rose from 4.3% to 5% in March, reaching their highest level since November 2022. Long-term inflation expectations also increased from 3.5% to 4.1%, hitting the highest rate recorded since February 1993. With these developments, the 10-year Treasury yield in the US stood at 4.26% last week, while the dollar index maintained at 104.0. Concerns about the consequences of President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, increased geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases led to a record high for the price of an ounce of gold last week, closing at $3,086.79 with a 2.03% weekly increase from $2,085. Brent crude oil’s barrel price also ended the week with a 0.9% weekly increase at $72.40.

NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE TRADED NEGATIVELY The New York stock market had a mixed trend last week. The new tariffs on imported cars announced by the Washington administration negatively affected the shares of automobile manufacturers with broad supply chains across North America. Shares of US auto manufacturer General Motors fell by 7.4% on Thursday and 1.1% on Friday. Ford’s shares also fell by 3.9% on Thursday and 1.8% on Friday. As a result of these developments, the S&P 500 index lost 1.53%, the Nasdaq index lost 2.59%, and the Dow Jones index lost 0.96% on a weekly basis. In the new week, on Monday, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, on Tuesday, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Building Permits, and JOLTS Job Openings, on Wednesday, the ADP Employment Report, Factory Orders, and Durable Goods Orders, and on Thursday, the Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Services PMI, and the ISM Services PMI, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday will be monitored.

EUROPEAN STOCKS TRADED NEGATIVELY EXCEPT FOR THE UK European stock markets had a selling trend last week, except for the UK, and focus shifted to the intense data agenda as well as the statements of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, in the new week. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that they would evaluate the US decision to impose a 25% tariff on car imports and other expected measures jointly, and they would protect their economic interests against these. Von der Leyen expressed deep regret about the US’s decision to impose tariffs on European automotive exports in a statement published last week and stated that they would evaluate this announcement together with other measures that the US is expected to take in the coming days. Analysts noted that reactions from the EU side will be monitored along with the reciprocal tariffs to be announced next week and said that trade wars could deepen in the coming period. Moreover, while developments related to the Russia-Ukraine War continued to be monitored in the region, Von der Leyen noted that both short and long-term financial and military aid would be provided to Ukraine, and sanctions against Russia would continue to exert pressure on the country. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskiy also said that they would not give up on their territorial integrity and independence. With these developments, the DAX 40 index in Germany lost 1.88%, the CAC 40 index in France lost 1.58%, and the MIB 30 index in Italy fell by 0.76% on a weekly basis, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 0.14%. In the upcoming week, on Monday, inflation data in Germany, on Tuesday, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany and the Eurozone, along with statements by ECB President Lagarde, on Thursday, the Services PMI in Germany and the Eurozone and Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone, and on Friday, Factory Orders in Germany will be followed.

ASIAN STOCKS TRADED NEGATIVELY Trump’s new tariff steps for the automotive sector had an impact on Asian markets last week, leading to a sales-oriented trend in the regional indices. The decline in South Korean and Japanese automotive