The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) held the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025 in January. According to the decision, the one-week repo auction interest rate was reduced by 250 basis points to 45.00 percent levels. The markets are closely following the CBRT’s interest rate decision for March. In 2025, the Central Bank will hold 8 meetings throughout the year to announce its interest rate decision. All eyes are on the interest rate decision date in March! The Central Bank will share its second interest rate decision of the year with the markets in March. The interest rate was announced as 45.00 percent in the decision made in January. According to the CBRT MPC meeting schedule, the last meeting of the year will be held on December 11. According to the Central Bank’s February survey, the one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for three months later is 40.00 percent. In accordance with the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee meeting schedule, the second interest rate decision of the year will be made on March 6 and shared with the markets at 2:00 p.m. According to the CBRT’s February survey, the inflation expectation at the end of the current year (CPI) was 27.05 percent in the previous survey period, while it became 28.30 percent in this survey period. The inflation expectation for 12 months ahead was 25.38 percent in the previous survey period, while it was 25.26 percent in this survey period. In the survey period of February 2025, participants predict on average that the CPI probability for 12 months ahead will increase by 22.80 percent, within the range of 21.00-23.99 percent with a probability of 41.11 percent, within the range of 24.00-26.99 percent with a probability of 21.46 percent, and within the range of 27.00-29.99 percent with a probability of 21.46 percent. The participants’ expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month was 45.00 percent in the previous survey period, while in this survey period it was 44.79 percent.March 6, 2025
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