The Trade Shock in the Markets: 5 Questions Answered

President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies have shaken global markets. Stocks, cryptocurrencies, oil, natural gas, and many other financial products experienced sharp declines. Here are answers to questions about the tariff uncertainty that is causing turmoil in the markets…The increased risk perception following President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs parallel to his protectionist trade policy continues to impact global equity markets.Trump’s tariff announcements remain a source of uncertainty, with retaliatory measures taken and planned in this direction leading to a high level of risk perception.On the first day of the week, there was significant selling pressure in global equity markets, and the selling pressure that began in Asia continued in other exchanges as well.In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 31,187 points, down by 7.7%, in South Korea, the Kospi index fell by 5.6% to 2,328 points, in China, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 7.3% to 3,096 points, and in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index closed down by 13.2% at 19,828 points.European markets also started the day with selling pressure, in line with Asian markets. In the Stoxx 600 in Europe, stocks of about 97% of the companies listed declined.After an initial decline in the DAX 40 index in Germany, it reached 7.1%, in France, the CAC 40 index was down by 6.3%, in the UK, the FTSE 100 index dropped by 5.1%, and in Italy, the FTSE MIB 30 index lost 7.4%.Here are 5 questions and their answers related to the tariff uncertainty that caused these sales:The global trade strategy of the US changed to a more protectionist stance after President Trump’s reelection on November 5, 2024, and taking office on January 20, 2025.Parallel to Trump’s promise to reduce the trade deficit during his candidacy, investors started focusing on tariff statements. Following January 20, consecutive tariff statements have ignited the risk perception in global markets. The repeated tariff statements have become the main agenda item for markets and asset pricing.Trump’s tariff statements have raised the issue of additional price increases on products for markets. The price increases in products imported to the US from overseas are aimed at reducing demand and, consequently, reducing the trade deficit, while also encouraging domestic production.This price movement fundamentally affects countries’ and companies’ manufacturing and trading strategies. Many US companies producing abroad will face additional customs duty expenses after tariffs. This condition fundamentally triggers a change in the future outlook for all companies and countries. Changing conditions, mainly from central banks, increase uncertainties about the global economic outlook.The reciprocal tariffs announced by the US administration last week aim to significantly reduce the US’s trade deficit with its trading partners. The US trade deficit reached a record level of $130.7 billion in January.Following the recent data, the US had a trade deficit of $30.9 billion with the European Union and a $26.6 billion trade deficit with China in February.Last week, tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% were imposed on products imported from many trading partners. Accordingly, tariffs of 20% were imposed on the European Union, 34% on China, 46% on Vietnam, 32% on Taiwan, 24% on Japan, 26% on India, 25% on South Korea, 36% on Thailand, 31% on Switzerland, 32% on Indonesia, 24% on Malaysia, 49% on Cambodia, 30% on South Africa, 37% on Bangladesh, and 17% on Israel.The consecutive tariff announcements by the US have made it difficult to predict the global economy, and responses from countries and anticipated retaliation announcements strengthen the predictions that trade wars can escalate. The significant impact of tariffs on centers such as China, Vietnam, and Taiwan, which have different advantages like cheap labor, logistics, and advanced manufacturing infrastructure, keeps the risk perception at high levels in all equity markets, especially the indices of related countries.After Trump’s unveiling of reciprocal tariffs after the US markets closed on Wednesday, April 2, 2025, a selling wave that started in Asian markets on Thursday deepened and continued. With the markets starting a new week, the bearish trend in all major indices deepened and spread.Countries’ 5-year credit default swap (CDS) premiums rose during this period, while investors turned to safe haven assets, leading to an increase in global bond demand. Bond yields dropped significantly worldwide. Similar market movements were also seen during the sales pressure caused by global recession concerns in August 2024.