JPMorgan indicated in a research note titled “Blood Will Spill” that Trump’s new tariff decision has increased the risk of a global economic recession by 20 points. Since April 2, the so-called “Freedom Day” when U.S. President Donald Trump announced new customs duties for many countries, the risk of recession in the global U.S. and world economy has risen from 40% to 60%. According to Business Insider, Bruce Kasman from JPMorgan, along with a group of economists, warned their clients in a research note sent out on Wednesday that the risk of the economy entering a recession has increased by 20 points in response to the tariff announcement made on Wednesday. While Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, for some countries this rate reached up to 60%, and those affected by the new regulations included China, Japan, and the European Union (EU).

The high-level global economy expert at JPMorgan, Kashman, in his note titled “Blood Will Spill,” pointed out that the destructive policies of the U.S. are the biggest risk to the global economic outlook this year. The note highlighted that the recent news suggests that U.S. trade policy has become less friendly to business than expected. JPMorgan economists described the tariffs as a “fundamental level” increase in taxes on imported goods for purchasing functional purposes. Prior to the new announcement, economists and supply chain experts speaking to Business Insider warned that the tariff plan by Trump would lead to increased import costs resulting in a wide range of price hikes from coffee and sugar to vehicles and electronic devices.

JPMorgan analysts stated that along with the previous tariff increases, this week’s announcement raised the average tax rate in the U.S. from approximately 22% to an estimated 24%, equivalent to about 2.4% of the total value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. Since World War II, this increase in such magnitude equals the highest tax increase ever made, according to JPMorgan’s research note. The note emphasized that if this trend continues, these policies could push the U.S. and possibly the global economy into a recession this year, raising the risk of a recession to 60% by 2025.